Will Masks Still Be In Short Supply? Also Talk About Investment Opportunities In The Mask Supply Chain

Friends who are concerned about the stock market may know that the epidemic that began to ferment during the Spring Festival has spawned a wave of short-term investment opportunities in masks, medical, and pharmaceutical stocks. Among them, mask stocks represented by Dawn shares (112% increase), TEDA shares (170% increase), and Zhende Medical (140% increase) have gone out of a wave of magnificent market.

However, as zf later encouraged various companies to switch production of masks, it seemed that masks were no longer in short supply. Mask stocks immediately ushered in a big correction. Zhende Medical's largest carriage return is 38%! The stockholders who take the high position can be said to be on the street. Will there be a shortage of masks at the back? Is there any chance for mask concept stocks?

The author can be regarded as half an industry insider. Just try to answer the following questions.

What is the supply chain of masks?

Will there be a shortage of masks afterwards?

Where is the bottleneck of the mask supply chain?

Are there any investment opportunities in the mask supply chain in the future?

1.What is the supply chain of masks?

simply put:

Petrochemical manufacturer (PP particles in spunbond layer + PP particles in melt blown layer) = "spunbond fabric manufacturer + melt blown fabric manufacturer =" mask manufacturer = "consumer

There are also manufacturers of meltblown cloth machines, spunbonded cloth machine manufacturers, and mask machine manufacturers.

2. Will there be a shortage of masks afterwards?

In my opinion:

Ordinary masks and disposable medical masks will be in tight balance for some time to come. If the foreign epidemic is not controlled, such masks will still be in short supply.

Medical surgical masks and medical N protective masks will be in short supply in the medium term.

Let me talk about ordinary masks and disposable medical masks.

According to Tian Yulong, chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the overall production capacity of masks in my country is more than 20 million per day. During the Spring Festival, due to insufficient workers' rework and low operating rate due to factors such as limited production due to the epidemic, it should now be able to return to full production. In addition to the conversion of non-mask companies from all over the country to mask production, the companies that are currently looking to convert, such as Foxconn, GM Wuling, BYD, Daddy Baby, etc., can basically achieve a production volume of 1.5-5 million per day. It is optimistic that the production capacity of 80-100 million yuan/day in March should be no problem.

On the consumption side, from the perspective of population, after deducting babies under 4 years old and people over 65 years old, the remaining population is the so-called population with a strong need to go out to calculate the population of about 1 billion. With the reusable masks that are now repeatedly promoted, On average, change a mask every 7 days. About 130 million/day consumption.

As for medical surgical masks and medical protective masks, why are they in short supply for a long time? Quite simply, this type of mask has relatively high requirements for filtration, and therefore relatively high requirements for melt blown cloth (double 99). However, most of the new domestic production capacity of these masks cannot meet this requirement (only disposable medical masks can be produced). At present, we can only rely on professional meltblown cloth manufacturers like Tianjin TEDA and Shandong Junfu to support production capacity and expand production. New players still need time to stabilize the production capacity and make the cloth well. Fortunately, ordinary people do not need to have such high requirements. If you have qualified medical surgical masks and medical protective masks, it is better to donate them to the hospital.

3. Where is the bottleneck of the mask supply chain?

As workers rework, the capacity of existing mask manufacturers is rapidly recovering, and workers are no longer the bottleneck.

You have also seen that as long as there is a clean workshop and the ability to assemble mask machines, it is actually very easy to switch to mask production, and mask machines are not a bottleneck.

Where is the bottleneck?

In my opinion, the bottleneck lies in the reliable meltblown cloth, meltblown particles.

Why? First of all, spunbond fabric does not require filtration, and the domestic production capacity of spunbond fabric is quite sufficient. The domestic production capacity of spunbond particles is quite sufficient and the technology is mature.

As for melt blown cloth, non-woven fabric manufacturers were reluctant to make mask melt blown cloth because of relatively large profits. This has resulted in relatively limited domestic melt blown cloth production capacity. Furthermore, to really achieve the double 99 filtration efficiency, electret treatment has a technical threshold, not just because you buy a melt blown machine. As a result, the production capacity of melt blown cloth cannot be expanded rapidly in the short term. You can also look at the recent increase in the price of melt blown cloth. . . .

The same is true for melt blown particles. Recently, many pp particle manufacturers have switched to melt blown pp particles, such as Jinfa Technology. For most other manufacturers, due to the relatively special production process of meltblown materials, and the requirements for low odor, low magazine, and low ash content, it takes time to be able to stabilize production.

4. Are there any investment opportunities in the mask supply chain in the future?

I believe that after reading this, the answer is already very clear.

For mask stocks, the current opportunity may only be limited to if the emotional stimulus brought by the expansion of the foreign epidemic situation, it may also be an oversold rebound.

Mask machine, there is no listed company mainly focusing on mask machine.